Can AI Tools Predict the Oscars 2024?

And the short answer is... YES!

They have done it in the past, and they will certainly do it again in the future. 

And not only The Oscars but the Super Bowl, the NBA playoffs, and MLB seasons. Even the TIME Person of The Year!  

After Oscars Update 

Here’s the table with Oscar predictions 2024 from Unanimous AI:

While film fans and experts have their picks based on all the rumors, how much money movies made, or even what people in the industry are saying, there’s a new player in the forecasting game: artificial intelligence (AI).

In this article, we’ll delve into the fascinating world of AI-powered Oscar predictions, examining their potential and limitations as we try to answer the million-dollar question: can AI tools outsmart the Academy voters? 

What AI predicts to Oscars 2024? A Glimpse into the Algorithm’s Crystal Ball

So, what does Artificial Intelligence say about the upcoming Oscars 2024? While the future remains veiled, let’s peek through the algorithms and decipher potential trends:

• The Rise of the Historical Epic: AI predicts a resurgence of historical dramas, with “Oppenheimer” and “Killers of the Flower Moon” leading the pack. Christopher Nolan‘s biopic on the “father of the atomic bomb” and Martin Scorsese’s foray into Native American history resonates with the algorithms’ hunger for epic scope and thematic weight.
  
  
• The Indie Darling’s Revenge: Don’t discount the power of independent cinema. AI models identify a potential upset by “Poor Things,” Yorgos Lanthimos‘ adaptation of a bizarre Victorian novel, with Emma Stone‘s captivating performance stealing the show.
  
  
• The Power of Performance: AI recognizes the inherent magic of a transformative performance. Leonardo DiCaprio’s nuanced portrayal of a conflicted lawman in “Killers of the Flower Moon” and Lily Gladstone‘s breakout role in the same film are tipped to garner acting glory.

A History of The Oscars and AI

The idea of AI predicting the Oscars isn’t as new as your grandmother’s pearl necklace. In 2015, Unanimous AI, a platform harnessing “swarm intelligence,” achieved a remarkable 87.5% accuracy rate in its pre-Oscars predictions. Since then, the marriage between Hollywood and Silicon Valley has blossomed, with AI models like Swarm platform crunching data to forecast awards season glory.

Swarm is based on Swarm intelligence, the brainchild of nature, a fascinating phenomenon where groups of simple individuals, like ants or bees, collectively achieve complex tasks despite limited individual capabilities. When it comes to predictions, AI models inspired by swarm intelligence leverage the power of collective insights.

Instead of relying on a single algorithm, these models aggregate the predictions of multiple simple models, each analyzing different aspects of the data. This diverse pool of perspectives, combined through sophisticated algorithms, often leads to more accurate and robust predictions than any single model could achieve.

For example, imagine a swarm intelligence model predicting Oscar winners. Each model might analyze different factors like box office numbers, critical acclaim, social media buzz, and directorial reputation. By combining these diverse viewpoints, the overall prediction reflects the nuanced tapestry of factors influencing award decisions, potentially achieving greater accuracy than relying on a single algorithm’s analysis.

Though powerful, AI’s award predictions, like all data-driven tools, face the shadow of bias. The films they analyze and the algorithms they use can reflect societal prejudices, potentially leading to skewed results.

Recognizing and mitigating bias requires carefully choosing training data, incorporating diverse perspectives, and constantly monitoring for fairness, ensuring Hollywood’s AI-powered future shines equally on all stories and talents.

AI Predicts Oscars 2023

In a dazzling display of interdimensional domination, Everything Everywhere All at Once reigned supreme at the 95th Academy Awards, mirroring the uncanny predictions of AI. Unanimous AI’s “Swarm intelligence” platform had declared the multiverse masterpiece the likely champion, awarding it a favorable 52% chance of snagging the coveted Best Picture award. And as the golden statuette found its way into Michelle Yeoh’s hands, the prophecy unfolded.

Yeoh’s electrifying performance, predicted with a 63% probability, secured her the Best Actress award, and co-star Jamie Lee Curtis joined her onstage, claiming Best Supporting Actress with an impressive 67% predicted outcome. The Daniels (Kwan and Scheinert) completed the film’s triumph, their directorial brilliance recognized with a 72% predicted win and their imaginative screenplay awarded with a 78% predicted victory.

Beyond Everything Everywhere, the AI predictions held strong. Austin Butler donned the Best Actor crown for his portrayal of Elvis Presley (57% predicted), Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio and Avatar: The Way of Water captivated audiences with their visuals (92% and 88% predicted wins respectively), and All Quiet on the Western Front, although missing the Best International Film win (90% predicted), resonated with viewers.

While not all AI predictions were infallible, the 95th Academy Awards cemented Unanimous AI’s standing as a formidable force in Oscar forecasting. Having surpassed traditional critics for six consecutive years, their impressive track record, even with last year’s miss on key categories, continues to spark awe.

Beyond the Algorithm: The Human Touch in the Age of AI

But amidst the whirring of processing units and the hum of algorithms, it’s crucial to remember that the Oscars are more than just data points. The human element, the unpredictable whims of taste and emotion, will always play a part in the final curtain call.

AI can be a powerful tool, offering insights and uncovering hidden patterns, but the ultimate decision of who walks away with a golden statuette still rests in the hands of the Academy.

The Oscars and AI: A Symbiotic Future?

So, can AI predict the Oscars 2024? The answer may lie in collaboration, not competition. Imagine a future where filmmakers leverage AI-powered analysis to refine their narratives, where studios use algorithm-driven insights to tailor Oscar campaigns, and where critics incorporate AI’s objective data with their own subjective observations.

AI’s Hollywood repertoire goes beyond predicting awards. It acts as a story surgeon, analyzing scripts for improvement, a casting crystal ball, suggesting ideal actors, and even a marketing mastermind, crafting targeted campaigns that resonate with audiences. From refining narratives to finding the perfect talent, AI is shaping the future of filmmaking, one algorithm at a time.

The Oscars and AI could form a symbiotic relationship, pushing the boundaries of cinematic storytelling and award show predictions alike.

The Oscars 2024 might still be shrouded in mystery, but the murmurs of “the Oscars and AI” are growing louder. Whether AI holds the ultimate answer to Hollywood’s most anticipated night remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the future of award show forecasting promises to be as captivating as the films themselves.

As the curtain rises on Oscar night, keep an eye not just on the stars, but also on the algorithms, for they might just hold the key to predicting who takes home the ultimate cinematic honor.